Airbus releases its Global Market Forecast
Published at the time of the Paris Air Show earlier this year, the 2023 edition of Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF) shows a consolidated demand for new aircraft for approximately 40,850 new passenger and freighter aircraft between 2023 and 2042, reinforcing 2022 projections.
Noticeably, the proportion of “Typically Single-Aisle” aircraft remains consistent with the previous forecast with an 80% share of the total new deliveries (32,630 aircraft) while the “Typically Widebody” will cover 20% of the new aircraft demand (8,220 aircraft).
Fleet renewal will continue to be a short term priority to decarbonize the aviation industry and will account for 42% of the new aircraft to enter into service - or 17,170 units. For reference, in 2022, 25% of the in-service fleet consisted of new generation aircraft, an improvement of 12 percentage points compared to 2019, for which new generation aircraft represented only 13%.
As a result, 58% of the 40,850 new deliveries in the next 20 years - or 23,680 aircraft - are forecasted for growth driven by a 2019-2042 projected passenger growth rate per year at 3.6 percent and an annual freight traffic at 3.2%.
Consequently, the freighter market will specifically require 2,510 additional aircraft including 920 new-built freighters and 1,590 conversions to address a fast growing express freight market (+4.9% CAGR 2019-2042) and a dominant general cargo market, representing 75% of the total freighter market by 2042, and that will continue to grow at 2.7% per year on average.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, 2,390 new-built aircraft are expected over the next two decades of which 92% will be consolidated around the “Typically Single-Aisle” category, remaining the world’s highest proportion over “typically widebody.”
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Vice President, HO Airline Marketing