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Airbus releases its Global Market Forecast

More Articles November 2023

Airbus releases its Global Market Forecast

Published at the time of the Paris Air Show earlier this year, the 2023 edition of Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF) shows a consolidated demand for new aircraft for approximately 40,850 new passenger and freighter aircraft  between 2023 and 2042, reinforcing 2022 projections.

Noticeably, the proportion of “Typically Single-Aisle” aircraft remains consistent with the previous forecast with an 80% share of the total new deliveries (32,630 aircraft) while the “Typically Widebody” will cover 20% of the new aircraft demand (8,220 aircraft).

Fleet renewal will continue to be a short term priority to decarbonize the aviation industry and will account for 42% of the new aircraft to enter into service - or 17,170 units. For reference, in 2022, 25% of the in-service fleet consisted of new generation aircraft, an improvement of 12 percentage points compared to 2019, for which new generation aircraft represented only 13%.

As a result, 58% of the 40,850 new deliveries in the next 20 years - or 23,680 aircraft - are forecasted for growth driven by a 2019-2042 projected passenger growth rate per year at 3.6 percent and an annual freight traffic at 3.2%.

Consequently, the freighter market will specifically require 2,510 additional aircraft including 920 new-built freighters and 1,590 conversions to address a fast growing express freight market (+4.9% CAGR 2019-2042) and a dominant general cargo market, representing 75% of the total freighter market by 2042, and that will continue to grow at 2.7% per year on average.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, 2,390 new-built aircraft are expected over the next two decades of which 92% will be consolidated around the “Typically Single-Aisle” category, remaining the world’s highest proportion over “typically widebody.”


For more information contact:

Damien Sternchuss
Vice President, HO Airline Marketing