Aircraft demand in Latin America to double by 2034

Long-term forecast sees resilience, sound growth potential for aviation in the region

The aviation industry is a long-term business. It is a business that has demonstrated resilience to external shocks time and again. From the oil crises in the 1970s to the Asian crisis of the late 1990s and through to the financial crisis of the late 2000s, world traffic demand has continued on its upward trend. So, despite the current difficult economic conditions in some parts of Latin America, the results of Airbus’ recently released Latin American Market Forecast show a very healthy picture.

Traffic to, from and within the region is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 4.7 percent for the next 20 years, slightly higher than the global growth rate of 4.6 percent. The driver for this growth will be the intra-regional and domestic markets within Latin America where traffic is expected to nearly triple in the next 20 years. And as only 43 percent of the region’s top 20 cities are connected by at least one daily flight, compared to 100 percent in Europe, there is tremendous potential for improving connectivity for the region’s travelling public.

That is not to say that long haul, widebody routes will not see significant growth. In fact, according to the Airbus Global Market Forecast, the traffic flows between South America and Western Europe and between South America and the United States are predicted to be two of the world’s largest by 2034. As Latin American airlines have relatively low market shares on these markets compared to non-regional airlines, Airbus sees real opportunities for airlines in the region to expand their long-haul networks.

Combining these opportunities and growth rates as a whole for the region will lead to a need for 2,540 new passenger and freighter aircraft, nearly double the 1,300 in-service today. With a current backlog of more than 400 aircraft, there are many opportunities for airlines to purchase Airbus aircraft to satisfy this demand!

For more information:
Paul Moultrie
Head of Airline Marketing, Latin America & Caribbean
paul.moultrie@airbus.com