Regional Global Market Forecast paints positive long-term picture
Despite the recent difficult economic conditions in some parts of Latin America, the results of Airbus' latest Latin America Global Market Forecast (GMF) show a very healthy picture for 2016-2035. As the industry has historically demonstrated resilience to external shocks time and again, Airbus sees no reason why the market will not quickly recover its strong growth trend.
Latin America’s passenger traffic growth is forecast to grow by 4.5 percent annually until 2035 which is on par with the world average. Leading this growth will be the intra-regional and domestic markets where traffic is expected to grow at a much higher rate of 4.9 percent per year as a result of changing demographics. With 6.3 billion people in emerging economies compared to only one billion people in developed economies, the world of aviation will change, driven by the increase in the emerging economies’ middle classes. Latin America will have half a billion people in the middle class by 2035, more than double the number in 2006, and these are the people who will have the disposable income to spend on air travel. Naturally, the GMF demonstrates an increase in propensity to travel from 0.4 trips per capita today to 0.9 by 2035.
The rise of low-cost carriers in key markets such as Colombia, Chile, and Peru will also impact growth. This business model will stimulate the market in years to come, especially with regards to domestic and intra-regional routes, by converting bus passengers to air passengers. There are huge opportunities for the region’s carriers in these markets, a space in which Latin America is less developed than other regions. For example, when compared to Latin America, Europe has approximately nine times more flights to or from cities with more than 3 million people, demonstrating the tremendous potential for improving connectivity for the region’s travelling public.
Combining these opportunities and growth rates as a whole for the region will lead to a need for over 3,000 passenger and freighter aircraft, more than double the 1,300 in-service today. As some of today’s aircraft will still be in service in 20 years, the demand for new aircraft will reach 2,570. With a total current backlog of approximately 750 aircraft, there is plenty of work to be done and aircraft to be sold to satisfy this demand… and Airbus is certainly up to the task!
For more information please contact:
Head of Marketing Latin America & Caribbean